Gessner's UFC 146 preview and predictions: Junior Dos Santos vs. Frank Mir for the UFC Heavyweight Championship, Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio "Big Foot" Silva, Roy Nelson vs. Dave Herman
Dot Net contributor Mark Gessner returns with the following preview and predictions of the UFC 146 pay-per-view.
Junior Dos Santos vs. Frank Mir for the UFC Heavyweight Championship: JDS is the best boxer in the heavyweight division and potentially the UFC. Mir's best chance to win this fight is on the ground; finding an opening and locking in a submission. JDS has yet to have a takedown scored on him in his MMA career and Mir is not the caliber of wrestler to be the first to do so. Even if, by some fluke or act of God, Mir takes him to the ground, JDS is still a BJJ Blackbelt, he's just had no opportunity to showcase it.
Prediction: JDS by TKO
Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio "Big Foot" Silva: This fight honestly depends on how healthy Cain truly is. If this is the Velasquez that demolished Lesnar at UFC 121 to capture the UFC Heavyweight Championship, Silva doesn't stand a chance in hell. A 100% healthy Velasquez can takedown Silva at will and pound out a victory with relative ease. If there are any lingering side affects to his injury that was a contributing factor to him being demolished by JDS at the first UFC on Fox, Silva might be able to take him down and pound out a stoppage, much like he did against Fedor in the opening round of the Strikeforce World Grand Prix Heavyweight Tournament.
Prediction: Velasquez via TKO
Roy Nelson vs. Dave Herman: Roy Nelson might be the most entertaining fighter in the UFC's Heavyweight division, if not the entire UFC, but for all the wrong reasons. He can take an absolute ass kicking and never seems to get rocked or knocked down. He's a former boxing champion and is a BJJ Blackbelt which you cannot take away from him and have to keep in consideration with every fight. He has the hands to knock you out, and ground game to tap you out... we just haven't really seen either since his debut in The Ultimate Fighter. In his twenty-four career fights, Dave Herman only has one with via decision with his other twenty coming by either KO or submission. He's a finisher, plain and simple. I see a stand-up brawl between the two with Nelson scoring the knockout victory to get his career on the right track.
Prediction: Nelson via KO
Stipe Miocic vs. Shane del Rosario: Miocic vs. del Rosario is a battle of undefeated MMA fighters. Miocic only has one of his wins via decision, with the rest coming via KO or submission, while del Rosario has yet to go to the judges' scorecards. Miocic is coming off a "Knockout of the Night" against Phil De Fries at UFC on Fuel TV 1, and del Rosario is coming off an armbar submission win against Lavar Johnson in the quarter-finals reserves fight in the Strikeforce World Heavyweight Grand Prix Tournament. This should be a battle of two heavyweights looking to make a name for themselves and crack the top ten of the UFC's Heavyweight Division.
Prediction: Shane del Rosario via submission
Stefan Struve vs. Lavar Johnson: After rebounding from getting knocked out by the Travis Browne's superman punch KO at UFC 130, Struve has gotten a "Submission of the Night" against Pat Barry and TKO'd Dave Herman. Lavar Johnson is coming off the biggest win of his career, where he TKO'd Barry at UFC on Fox 3 earlier this month. Johnson has yet to have had a fight in his career go to decision, and Struve only has once, where he beat Paul Buentello at UFC 107. Johnson's riding the momentum of his win twenty-one days ago, but I don't think it is enough to carry him past Struve. However, if you Johnson does KO Struve, expect it to be an epic like all of KO losses have been based on him being 6'11".
Prediction: Struve via TKO
Prelims (On FX)
Diego Brandao vs. Darren Elkins: Elkins via decison
Edson Barboza vs. Jamie Varner: Barboza via KO
Jason "Mayhem" Miller vs. C.B. Dollaway: Mayhem via submission
Dan Hardy vs. Duane Ludwig: Hardy via decision
Prelims (On Facebook)
Jacob Volkmann vs. Paul Sass: Volkmann
Kyle Kingsbury vs. Glover Teixeira: Kingsbury
Mike Brown vs. Daniel Pineda: Brown
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