Gessner's UFC 140: Jones vs. Machida Preview and Predictions: Jon "Bones" Jones vs. Lyoto Machida for the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship, Frank Mir vs. Big Nog, Tito Ortiz vs. Lil' Nog, and more


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MMA / UFC News


Gessner's UFC 140: Jones vs. Machida Preview and Predictions: Jon "Bones" Jones vs. Lyoto Machida for the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship, Frank Mir vs. Big Nog, Tito Ortiz vs. Lil' Nog, and more
Dec 10, 2011 - 01:35 PM


By Mark Gessner

UFC 140: Jones vs. Machida takes place live on pay-per-view this Saturday night from the Air Canada Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada at 9:00 PM EST. The following are my preview and predictions for the show.

1. Mark "The Machine" Hominick (20-9) vs. "The Korean Zombie" Jung Chan-Sung (11-3) [Featherweight Division]

Mark Hominick is an Ontario born fighter. He won his MMA debut fight and became the Canadian Super-Lightweight Championship in the UCC. He defended the title twice successfully with wins via submission. He then went on to win the TKO Major League Featherweight Championship. He went 6-1 in TKO before being signed by the UFC.

He won his first two UFC Fights at UFC 58 and Ultimate Fight Night 5. He went on to fight in various MMA organizations such as WEC, Affliction, ROF, and TKO before taking a year and a half break from MMA from July of 2008 until January of 2010 due to injuries.

Following his eighteen month break, he returned to the WEC and won three straight fights prior to WEC and UFC merging. At UFC Fight for the Troops 2 this past January, he defeated George Roop via TKO at 1:28 of the first round to earn a shot at the UFC Featherweight Champion, Jose Aldo.

At UFC 129, Hominick was dominated by Aldo for four rounds. However, in the fifth and final round, Hominick mounted an extraordinary comeback, took Aldo to the ground, and unleashed a nearly full five minute flurry of strikes and beat a top three pound-for-pound fighter with a 10-8 round. Hominick ultimately lost the fight via unanimous decision but Hominick is still carrying the momentum of one of the best comebacks in UFC history against one of the top fighters in the world.

Jung Chan-Sung is a black belt in Taekwondo. He began his career in June of 2007, going 10-1 in various South Korean and Japanese mixed martial arts promotions. He came to the United States and debuted in the WEC in April of 2010 at WEC 48. In his debut fight, he fought Leonard Garcia, where he lost via split decision. Despite the loss, it was one of the most closely contested fights in WEC history and was awarded with the "Fight of the Year" award by Wrestling Observer.

The Zombie then lost via second round knockout from a head kick by George Roop at WEC 51. UFC and WEC merged in the winter of last year and Sung was given a rematch against Leonard Garcia at UFC Fight Night in March of 2011. In that fight, Sung pulled of something that had never been done in UFC history. Late in the second round, Sung locked Garcia in a Twister, and secured a submission victory.

Despite the freak submission victory over Garcia, Zombie has not had great luck since leaving Asia. I am not however discounting the talent and ability it took to pull off a Twister in a live fight. There is a reason that it had not been seen prior to his fight with Garcia, and could potentially not be seen again. The ground acumen it takes to pull it off is astounding. With that said, I think Hominick will take this fight to the mat, and pound out a decision victory like he did in his final round against UFC Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo.

Prediction: Mark Hominick defeats Jung Chan-Sung via decision

2. Claude "The Prince" Patrick (14-1) vs. Brian "Bad Boy" Ebersole (48-14-1-1) [Welterweight Division]

Claude Patrick is a muay thai and Brazilian jiu-jitsu fighter from Toronto. He made his MMA debut in 2002, and has only lost one fight in the past decade. He has trained with current UFC Welterweight Champions Georges St-Pierre. He went 11-1 in Canadian promotions before making his UFC debut at UFC 115.

In his UFC debut, he defeated Ricardo Funch via second round guillotine choke, followed that up with a unanimous decision victory over James Wilks at UFC 120, and has most recently defeated Daniel Roberts via unanimous decision at UFC 129. In his fifteen fight career, Patrick has won nine of his fights via submission, all of which have been results of a choke.

Brian Ebersole has fought in an astonishing sixty-four career fights since beginning his mixed martial arts career in 2000. Eleven years, sixty-four fights, comes out to an average of six-plus fights a years meaning fighting every two months. He is a former NCAA Division I wrestler at Ohio State. He has won twenty fights via knockout and fourteen fights via submission in his career.

Since coming to the UFC, Ebersole has defeated Chris Lytle via unanimous decision at UFC 127 in the "Fight of the Night" and then won the "Submission of the Night" against Dennis Hallman at UFC 133.

Both Patrick and Ebresole are relatively new to fighting in the top promotion in all of mixed martial arts in the UFC. Both are undefeated fighting in the UFC in the most competitive division in MMA in the UFC's welterweight division. While Ebersole has fourteen career losses in his career, Patrick has won fourteen of his career fifteen fights. In his career though, Ebersole has fourteen career victories via knockout (just as many as Patrick has in his career), and twenty via submission (six more than Patrick's overall record). Ebersole has not been knocked out in his sixty-four career fights and has earned his nickname of T.W.A.S. [The White Anderson Silva].

Prediction: Brian Ebersole defeats Claude Patrick via submission

3. "The Huntington Beach Bad Boy/The People's Champ" Tito Ortiz (16-9-1) vs. "Little Nog" Antônio Rogério Nogueira (19-5) [Light Heavyweight Division]

Tito Ortiz came into the UFC at UFC 13: The Ultimate Force in 1997. He beat Wanderlei Silva for the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship in his seventh career fight. He set the UFC record for the most consecutive Light Heavyweight Championship defenses with five successful defenses. Throughout his career, he has knocked out eight of his opponents, one of which was a knockout of the night over Ken Shamrock in their trilogy of fights of in their storied rivalry. He is one of the fighters along with Randy Couture, Chuck Lidell, and Rampage Jackson who helped to put the UFC and MMA on the map and garner mainstream attention for the sport.

After defeating Ryan Bader at UFC 132 with a first round UFC 132"_blank">guillotine choke to save his career, following four losses and a draw five fight streak. He then took a with Rashad Evans less then a month later. He ended up losing to Rashad via TKO though.

Antônio Rogério Nogueira is a former PRIDE fighter. In his career, he has nineteen victories with five knockouts and six submissions. He trains at Black House in Brazil with his brother Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira, Lyoto Machida, and UFC Middleweight Champion, Anderson Silva. He is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and is a former Brazilian boxing champion. In his career, his only losses have come to top UFC fighters such as Ryan Bader and Phil Davis, along with former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion, Mauricio "Shogun" Rua.

This fight was originally scheduled to take place this past March at UFC 132"_blank">UFC Fight Night 24. Ortiz had to pull out of the fight though due to a laceration. Lil' Nog went on to fight Phil Davis at that show and lost due to decision.

Phil Davis found success with single leg takedown attempts against Lil' Nog what Nogueira was able to stuff double leg takedowns on every attempt of his last fight. Ortiz is a great wrestler but do not look for him to take this fight to the ground due to Nog's black belt in BJJ. Both fighters want to keep this fight on the feet, and I think Ortiz has a slight edge in striking. The loser of this fight could be out of a job, so look for Tito to fight for not only his career, but guaranteed $250G plus buys he gets per fight.

Prediction: Tito Ortiz defeats Antônio Rogério Nogueira via TKO

Frank Mir (15-5) vs. "Big Nog" Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira (33-6-1-1) [Heavyweight Division]

Frank Mir went 2-0 in MMA before making his debut in the UFC at UFC 31 in November of 2001. He won the UFC Heavyweight Championship versus Tim Sylvia at UFC 48 in 2004 due to armbar. He however needed to vacated the championship due to an injury from a motorcycle accident. He went 2-2 in his next four fights, two years later, following the accident.

In February 2008, at UFC 81, Mir won arguably the biggest fight of his career. Out of nowhere, against future UFC Heavyweight Champion, he defeated Brock Lesnar with a kneebar out of nowhere a minute and a half into their fight.

Mir then won the Interim UFC Heavyweight Championship from Big Nog. He then went on to lose to Lesnar in a rematch at UFC 100 via TKO. He beat Cheick Kongo with a guillotine at UFC 104, and earned an interim UFC Heavyweight Championship fight versus Shane Carwin at UFC 111. Carwin destroyed Mir and won via first round knockout in under four minutes. Mir has since beat Mirko Cro Cop and Roy Nelson.

Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira has been fighting in mixed martial arts since 1999. He is a former PRIDE and UFC Interim Heavyweight Champion. He's won fights against legends such as Mark Coleman, Bob Sapp, Dan Henderson, Fabricio Werdum, and Randy Couture. In his career, his only losses have come to top names MMA such as Dan Henderson, Fedor, Josh Barnett, and Cain Velasquez. Of his thirty wins, twenty came by submission.

This is not the first time Mir and Nogueira have fought. In December of 2008, at UFC 92, Mir defeated Big Nog via second round knockout. Nogueira has redeemed his losses against Hendo and Barnett, and is looking to do the same against Mir this Saturday.

Nogueira looked stellar against up-and-coming Brendan Schaub at UFC 134 from Rio in August. Mir like wise looked solid, dominating Roy Nelson at UFC 130 in May. The most notable change in Mir was he entered the Octagon heavier than normal. While adding muscular, he really looked to be more thick than normal and seemed to gas out in the late-second and third round. This fight should play out the same as it did three years ago, but hopefully for Mir's sake he is in better shape and has better cardio then this past Spring.

Frank Mir defeats Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira via decision

5. Jon "Bones" Jones (14-1) vs. Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida (17-2) for the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship

Lyoto Machida went 8-0 in Japan and Brazil in his MMA before joining the UFC. He then won his first eight fights in the UFC, with wins over names such as Tito Ortiz and Thiago Silva before getting a Light Heavyweight Championship title shot versus Rashad Evans. He defeated Evans via KO to become the champion. He won his first title defense with a split decision victory against Shogun. Shogun got a rematch eight months later and knocked out Machida in only 3:35 into the first round. After losing the title, Machida headlined last November's UFC 123 versus Quinton "Rampage" Jackson. In a controversial decision, Rampage defeated Machida 29-28 on two of the three judges' scorecards to pick up the split decision victory.

Machida was able to rebound from his two consecutive losses this past April versus UFC Hall of Fame fighter, Randy "The Natural" Couture. At UFC 129, Machida beat out Couture in the first round due to effective counter striking. He followed up his first round with an amazing knockout in the second round, connecting with Couture's jaw with a to win the fight.

Jon "Bones" Jones have proven to be potentially the best pound-for-pound fighter in all of MMA. He is a former Junior College Wrestling Champion and has since gone on to win all but one fight of his career. His only loss came due to illegal elbow strikes against Matt Hamill two years ago. Aside from that fight, Jones has won his other fourteen career fights, with only two going to a decision. He has been awarded with both the "Knockout of the Night" (versus Brandon Vera) and "Submission of the Night" (versus Ryan Bader).

In March of this year, after defeating Bader at UFC 127, Jones was given a UFC Light Heavyweight Championship fight against Mauricio "Shogun" Rua. After dominating Shogun for two and a half rounds, Jones finished off Shogun via TKO due to knees and punches. He followed up his destruction of Shogun by picking apart Rampage Jackson this past September. After getting the best of Rampage for three round, Jones won his first title defense with a rear naked choke submission in the fourth round, earning the "Fight of the Night" award.

Machida has knockout power in his left hand, left knee, and both right and left head kicks. His offense is predicated on coming in for quick striking spurts, and then circling away. Jones presents a real problem for that game plan. Jones has an eight-four inch reach (the largest reach in UFC history) and can keep Machida at bay with his long range strikes. While Machida has proven to be probably the best Brazilian wrestler in the sport, he has never fought someone with the wrestling ability on Jon Jones. Rashad Evans is just a good of a wrestler as Jones, if not better, but did not use it against Machida, and suffered a horrific knockout defeat. With the exception of a freak knockout like he scored against Couture, Machida is entering tonight's fight as the clear-cut underdog.

Prediction: Jon Jones defeats Lyoto Machida via knockout

Thank you very much for clicking the link that brought you to my preview and predictions for UFC 140: Jones vs. Machida. If you have any thoughts, questions, comments, or critiques, feel free to email me at kliq4life28@gmail.com or tweet me at
@MarkGessner.

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