By Mark Gessner

UFC 137: Penn vs. Diaz takes place tonight at 9:00 PM EST on pay-per-view live from the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, NV. This is my preview and predictions for tonight's show headlined by two former Welterweight Champions.

1. Hatsu Hioki (24-4-2) vs. George Roop (12-7-1) [Featherweight Division]

Hatsu Hioki is a Japanese fighter making his debut in the United States. He is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu fighter who has twelve career victories via submission and four by knockout. Hioki has fought twenty-eight of his thirty career fights in Japan, with his other two career fights taking place in Montreal for TKO, where he won both fights, one of which versus UFC Featherweight Championship challenger Mark Hominick, who he beat via decision to become TKO Major League Featherweight Champion. In his career, he has been Sengoku Featherweight Champion, Shooto Lightweight Champion, and TKO Major League Featherweight Champion. He is entering tonight's fight riding a four fight win streak.

George Roop is an eighth season of The Ultimate Fighter veteran. Prior to TUF, he went 8-3 fighting in western US MMA promotions, predominantly in Rage in the Cage. Roop won his fight against Rolando Delgado to get into the TUF house and then beat John Polakowski in the quarterfinals of the show. He was eliminated from the show after suffering a first round submission loss to Phillipe Nover.

Following TUF, Roop went on to have three fights in the UFC, going 1-2 which led to him being let go from the company following a second round submission loss to George Sotiropoulos at UFC 101. After being cut by the UFC, he fought for Rage in the Cage and the WEC, going 2-1-1, winning a fight of the night bonus in his draw with Leonard Garcia at WEC 47 and a knockout of the night bonus against Jung Chan-Sung at WEC 51. When WEC and UFC merged, Roop was brought back into the UFC and has since gone 1-1.

This fight was originally scheduled to be a prelims fight that was not going to be on the PPV but was bumped up when Georges St-Pierre suffered his knee injury and the main event of GSP vs. Carlos Condit was pulled from the card. This will be a crucial fight in the careers of both Roop and Hioki. Hioki is fighting to make a name for himself with UFC fans who will be getting their first exposure to him and will be looking to win in impressive fashion. For Roop, he quite possibly could be fighting for his UFC career. This is his second stint in the company and with a 2-3 record, a loss could lead to him being let go by the company again. This is by far the biggest fight of his career, so look for him to attempt to deliver the best performance of his career. With that said, I think Hioki's BJJ will prove to be too much for Roop.

Prediction: Hatsu Hioki defeats George Roop via submission

2. Scott Jorgensen (12-4) vs. Jeff Curran (33-13-1) [Bantamweight Division]

Scott Jorgensen is a former NCAA Division I wrestler and three time Pac-10 champion, wrestling out of Boise State. Following his collegiate wrestling career, he entered MMA. He went 4-1 in his first five career fights before joining the WEC in early 2008. He went 2-2 in his first fights in the promotion, before going on a five fight winning streak, earning himself a WEC Bantamweight Championship fight against the number one ranked bantamweight in the world, Dominick Cruz.

It was a closely contested back-and-forth battle between the two at the final WEC event, but Cruz won the fight via unanimous decision to retain the championship. Following the show, WEC merged with UFC and Jorgensen was brought into the UFC. In his UFC debut, Jorgensen knocked out Ken Stone in the first round at The Ultimate Fighter 13 Finale.

After forty-seven career fights, thirty-four year old Jeff Curran is making his UFC debut tonight. In his career he has fought in notable MMA organizations such as WEC, Pride, Strikeforce, and Bellator. He is a second degree BJJ Black Belt and has nineteen submission victories in his career, with expertise in chokes and armbars.

This will be a fifteen minute ground battle between the fighters. Jorgensen will be looking to shoot for takedowns and working for dominant positions, while mixing in striking to wear down Curran. Curran will be looking for openings to utilize his BJJ skill and lock in submissions. While Curran has the experience advantage three times as many fights in his career as Jorgensen, Jorgensen has been facing the best in the 135 pound division for the last three years in the WEC.

Prediction: Scott Jorgensen defeats Jeff Curran via decision

3. Mirko Cro Cop (27-9-2-1) vs. Roy Nelson (15-6) [Heavyweight Division]

Mirko Cro Cop is a kickboxing legend. He entered K1 in 1996. He went 16-7 in kickboxing and 45-5 in boxing before entering mixed martial arts. He has since gone on to win the Pride Grand Prix in 2006, a year where he was voted the "Most Outstanding Fighter" by the Wrestling Observer and awarded the "Knockout of the Year" in his win over Wanderlei Silva by Sherdog. In his career he holds victories over top heavyweights such as Wanderlei, Josh Barnett, and UFC Hall of Famer Mark Coleman.

Roy Nelson is the former IFL Heavyweight Champion, which he won in 2007. He defended twice, and won both fights via TKO before the company closed. Following the IFL, Nelson went on to make a name for himself by winning the tenth season of The Ultimate Fighter, defeating Brendan Schaub via first round knockout. After winning a UFC contract, Nelson went on to defeat Stefan Struve via first round TKO in only thirty-nine seconds.

He was then awarded a number one contender fight against Junior Dos Santos in August of 2010, with the winner set to face the win of Brock Lesnar vs. Cain Velasquez for the UFC Heavyweight Championship. Dos Santos out-boxed Nelson, but was unable to put him away during their fifteen minute fight. JDS was awarded the unanimous decision victory. Nelson then fought Frank Mir at UFC 130. Mir showed his experience and outworked Nelson for three rounds, receiving the unanimous decision victory.

Both Cro Cop and Nelson are entering tonight's fight on two-fight losing streaks. The thirty-seven year old Cro Cop is looking to be at the end of his MMA career and will almost undoubtedly be cut by the UFC if he loses against Nelson. On the other side of the octagon, Nelson has been criticized for the shape he is in when he fights by UFC President Dana White, especially following his fight with Mir this past May. Nelson has since started a new diet and workout regimen and intends to eventually fight in the light heavyweight division.

Conditioning is the key to this fight. Both fighters absolutely have knockout power. Nelson's conditioning was not on par with Mir or JDS and both veteran fighters were able to pick him apart for three rounds. Cro Cop was picked apart for nearly three rounds in his fights with Mir and Schaub, but both fighters were able to capitalize and put Cro Cop to sleep. I think Nelson will be able to do the same.

Prediction: Roy Nelson defeats Mirko Cro Cop via KO

4. Cheick Kongo (16-6-0-2) vs. Matt Mitrione (5-0) [Heavyweight Division]

Cheick Kongo is a former European kickboxing champion who had a 21-2 record before transitioning into MMA. He made his UFC debut at UFC 61 in 2006. He has gone 9-4-1 since joining the company and holds notable victories against Antoni Hardonk, Cro Cop, and Pat Barry.

His knockout win over Barry this past July was possibly one of the most impressive comebacks in years. Barry rocked and dropped Kongo and appeared to be on the verge of finishing the fight, until Kongo miraculously got back to his feet and knocked Barry out cold with a right hook, right uppercut combo.

Matt Mitrione is a former NFL Defensive Tackle for the Minnesota Vikings and New York Giants. Following his two years in the NFL, Mitrione transitioned into a MMA career and was picked to be on the The Ultimate Fighter: Heavyweights. Following the show, Mitrione received a fight with Marcus Jones, who he knocked out only ten seconds into the second round.

He has since gone on to defeated Kimbo Slice via TKO, beat Joey Beltran via unanimous decision in the "Fight of the Night" at UFC 119, and then knocked out Tim Hague and Christian Morecraft January and July of this year respectively. This will be his first career fight on a pay-per-view main card, and will be co-main eventing the show.

Mitrione has improved in each and every one of his fights. He has shown his knockout power throughout his five career fights but has recently displayed improved takedown ability. He has mixed up his striking, working in leg kicks to set up punching combinations, leaving his opponents off balance.

Kongo will be looking to take advantage of his vast experience advantage over Mitrione and will be looking to any openings he leaves in the stand up and attempt to knock him out. Mitrione needs to be precise in his striking, not leave himself wide open for counter strikes, while mixing in takedowns, and attempting to unload with ground and pound striking. I see Kongo attempting to go for a big mid-fight knockout, the quicker Mitrione slipping a big punch or kick, and connecting with a big counter right that will drop Kongo, much like Mitrione did to Morecraft. If he is able to do so, Mitrione will join elite company with former UFC Interim Heavyweight Champion Frank Mir, as the only other man in the UFC to finish Cheick Kongo.

Prediction: Matt Mitrione defeats Chieck Kongo via TKO

5. B.J. Penn (16-7-2) vs. Nick Diaz (25-7-0-1) [Welterweight Division]

Going into UFC 137, the original main event was UFC Welterweight Champion Georges St-Pierre versus the Strikeforce Welterweight Champion Nick Diaz in a 170 pound super-fight. When Nick Diaz, no-showed two press conferences for the show, UFC opted to drop Diaz from the main event and went with Carlos Condit challenging GSP for the title. Condit was originally scheduled to fight B.J. Penn at the PPV. After talking with the UFC, Diaz was picked as Condit's replacement for the Penn fight. Sadly though, GSP injured his knee training for Condit a few weeks ago and the main event was bumped from the card and postponed until early 2012. Penn vs. Diaz was bumped up to the main event.

Nick Diaz grew up idolizing B.J. Penn and for good reason. Penn is a former UFC Welterweight and Lightweight Champion. He is one of only two fighters to hold championships in two different weight classes, the other being UFC Hall of Famer Randy Couture. He has forced UFC veterans like Kenny Florian and Shawn Sherk to tap out, and has both knocked out and submitted UFC Hall of Famer Matt Hughes in their trilogy of fights.

Nick Diaz is the first and only fighter to hold the Strikeforce Welterweight Champion. He is currently coming into tonight's fight riding a ten fight win streak. Of his twenty-five career wins, twenty-one of them have come by either knockout or submission, giving him an eight-four percent finishing average which is unheard of for anyone whose had as many fights as he's had in his career.

This is a match-up of two fighters who have strong backgrounds in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but utilize boxing to set up their takedowns and submissions. Diaz before being brought over from Strikeforce to the UFC was going to be boxing a former champion Jeff Lacey, but gave up that fight to move to the premiere MMA organization.

Penn is currently going through the toughest stretch of his decade long MMA career. Coming off his loss to GSP at UFC 94 for the Welterweight Championship, Penn rebounded with wins over Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez. He has since gone on to be dominated for by Frankie Edgar in two fights for the UFC Lightweight Championship, losing both via decision. He rebounded nicely with a twenty-one second knockout of Matt Hughes at UFC 123. In his last fight at UFC 127 in Australia, he fought Jon Fitch to a majority draw. He looked good in the first round, attempting to lock in numerous rear naked chokes on Fitch, but Fitch was able to escape the submission attempts. The second round was close and could of gone either way. However, in the third, Fitch took Penn down with ease and out-struck him 134-0.

Diaz on the other hand, has looked absolutely dominant over the last three years. He imposes his will on his opponents and is nearly impossible to game-plan around. If fighters are afraid of getting submitted and decide to try and out-strike him, they tend to fail miserably and get knocked out like Paul Daley, Frank Shamrock, and Robbie Lawler. If they decide they like their chances better on the ground, Diaz can submit fighters like he did to Cyborg this past January.

Penn has had an excellent UFC career and no one can deny that. He has all the tools and the experience to win, but the question has to be asked as to whether or not the sport has passed him by. In his fight with Fitch, he appeared to be gassed out by the middle of the second round. Diaz who does triathlons in his spare time does not every have an issue of getting tired while inside the cage. Look for Diaz to ware down Penn for a round, maybe two, before locking in a submission or putting together a knockout combination.

Prediction: Nick Diaz defeats B.J. Penn via TKO

Thanks you very much for clicking the link that brought you to my preview and predictions for UFC 137: Penn vs. Cruz. If you have any thoughts, questions, comments, or critiques, feel free to email me at kliq4life28@gmail.com or tweet me at @MarkGessner. Check back late tonight for coverage of the show.

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