Gessner's UFC 132: Cruz vs. Faber Preview and Predictions: Dominick Cruz vs. Urijah Faber for the UFC Bantamweight Championship, Wanderlei Silva vs. Chris Leben, and Ryan Bader vs. Tito Ortiz
Jul 2, 2011 - 10:55 AM |
By Mark Gessner
UFC 132: Cruz vs. Faber takes place this tonight at 9:00 PM EST on pay-per-view live from the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, NV. This is my preview and predictions for the loaded annual Fourth of July show.
1. Dennis "The Menace" Siver (18-7) vs. "Handsome" Matt Wiman (13-5) [Lightweight Division]
Since joining the UFC in 2007, Dennis Siver has gone 8-4. He has had two knockout the night victories over Nate Mohr and Paul Kelly, along with a submission of the night win of Andre Winner at UFC 122. Siver is entering the Octagon on a three fight winning streak. In his last fight at UFC 127 in Australia, he defeated favorite George Sotiropoulos via unanimous decision.
Matt Wiman joined the UFC in 2006, where he lost to Spencer Fisher at UFC 60. Following the loss, he was selected to be on the cast of the fifth season of The Ultimate Fighter. He lost in the quarterfinals to Manny Gamburyan. He received a fight on the finale against Brian Geraghty, who he defeated via TKO in 2:09 of the first round. Since TUF Finale, Wiman has gone 6-2, with three fight of the nights.
Siver has the edge in stand up where as Wiman has the edge on the ground with his ground and pound. Siver is a purple belt Brazilian jiu jitsu fighter who is comfortable on his back so he will not be scared of this fight going to the ground. However, I think Wiman's ground striking will edge out Siver's submission attempts.
Prediction: Matt Wiman defeats Dennis Siver via TKO
2. Carlos "The Natural Born Killer" Condit (26-5) vs. Dong Hyun "The Stun Gun" Kim (14-0-1) [Welterweight Division]
Carlos Condit is a former WEC Welterweight Champion. He has been on an impressive streak as of late, winning ten of his last eleven fights. His only loss in that stretch was in his UFC debut, where he lost to Martin Kampmann via split decision. He has since won his last three fights, picking up a fight of the night with a third round TKO victory with seconds left in the fight versus Rory MacDonald at UFC 115, and a first round knockout of the night again Dan Hardy at UFC 122.
Since joining the UFC in 2008, Dong Hyun Kim has gone 5-0-1. Since losing via split decision to Karo Parisyan at UFC 94, which was overturned and ruled a no contest due to Parisyan failing his drug test due to pain killers, Kim was won his last three fights via unanimous decision over TJ Grant, Amir Sadollah, and Nate Diaz.
Condit is the very definition of a finisher in mixed martial arts. Of his twenty-six wins, twelve have come by knockout and thirteen by submission. Condit will far and away be Kim's biggest test. While Kim has an impressive takedowns with his Judo background, being a 4th dan black belt, Condit is the complete package.
Prediction: Carlos Condit defeats Dong Hyun Kim via submission
3. "The Huntington Beach Bad Boy" Tito Ortiz (15-8-1) vs. Ryan "Darth" Bader (12-1) [Light Heavyweight Division]
Tito Ortiz made his MMA debut in the UFC at UFC 13: The Ultimate Force in 1997. He defeated Wanderlei Silva for the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship in the seventh fight of his career. He set the UFC record for the most consecutive Light Heavyweight Championship defenses with five. In his career, he has eight knockout victories, one of which was a knockout of the night over Ken Shamrock, in their third fight of their storied rivalry. He is one of the fighters along with Randy Couture, Chuck Lidell, and Rampage Jackson who are responsible for putting UFC and MMA on the map and garner mainstream attention.
Since his knockout of the night versus Ken Shamrock in 2006, Tito has been on a 0-4-1. He was knocked out by Lidell at UFC 66 in a Light Heavyweight Championship fight, fought to a draw against Rashad Evans at UFC 73, and has had three consecutive decision losses to Lyoto Machida, Forrest Griffin, and Matt Hamill. UFC President Dana White has said that if Ortiz does not win tonight, he will be cut by the UFC. While Tito has looked decent in his three decision losses (and I personally felt he should have beaten Griffin in their fight), looking decent in losses does not warrant the $250,000 paydays he makes fighting plus gate percentages that his contract stipulates.
Ryan Bader is a former Division I wrestler at Arizona State University along with teammates C.B. Dollaway and UFC Heavyweight Champion Cain Velasquez. He was a three time PAC-10 champion and a two time All-American. Following his college wrestling career, he transitioned into a MMA career, where he went 7-0 before The Ultimate Fighter Season 8. Bader won three fights on the show which got him to the contract fight, where he defeated Vinny Magalhães via TKO. Since winning TUF 8, he won his first four UFC fights, with two notable wins over Keith Jardine via knockout and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira via decision at UFC 119.
He suffered his first career defeat at the hands of current UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jon "Bones" Jones at UFC 126 this past February. Jones dominated Bader on the ground for two rounds before cinching in a guillotine choke at the end of the second round to pick up the win. Following the fight, Jones was awarded a title shot versus "Shogun" Rua the following month at UFC 128, where he won the championship.
Ortiz was originally slotted to face Antonio Rogerio Nogueira at Ultimate Fight Night 24 in March with his career on the line. Sadly, Ortiz had to pull out of the fight a couple weeks prior due to a severe cut on his head. Due to the injury, Ortiz was given this fight with Bader. While I favored Ortiz over Lil Nog, I do not see how Ortiz can beat the younger, and better Bader. Bader is an elite wrestler with good hands. Ortiz could catch Bader with a clean shot and score a surprise knockout, but I see Bader taking this fight to the ground and controlling Ortiz there.
Prediction: Ryan Bader defeats Tito Ortiz via unanimous decision
4. "The Axe Murder" Wanderlei Silva (33-10-1-1) vs. Chris "The Crippler" Leben (25-7) [Middleweight Division]
Wanderlei Silva has been fighting in mixed martial arts, most notably in Pride and the UFC since 1996. He held the Pride Middleweight Championship from 2001-2007. He was the Sherdog's Fighter of the Year Award in 2004. He holds the record in Pride for most wins (twenty-two) and knockouts (fifteen). In his career, he has twenty-three career knockouts, including a knockout of the night over Keith Jardine at UFC 84, which ended up winning the knockout of the year.
In the UFC, he is 2-3. His three losses came to UFC Light Heavyweight legends Chuck Lidell, Rampage Jackson, and Rich Franklin. In his last fight, in his UFC Middleweight debut, he defeated Michael Bisping soundly via unanimous decision at UFC 110.
Chris Leben was a member of the phenomenal first season of The Ultimate Fighter class. He has gone on to have seventeen fights in the UFC since the show in 2005. Leben is known for having an iron jaw, being knocked out only twice in his thirty-one fight career. He is a fighter who loves to stand up and trade punches, but can also wins fights on the ground. He displayed his submission ability in his most recent fight at UFC 116 versus Yoshihiro Akiyama, winning the fight with a triangle choke in the third round, with twenty seconds left in the fight.
The second knockout loss of his career came this past January versus Brian Stann at UFC 125. Prior to that knockout loss, the only other person to knock him out was the one of best pound-for-pound fighters in the world, Anderson Silva. Stann rocked Leben two times in the first round, but Leben was able to survive, before being dropped for a third time, where Stann pounced and pounded out the TKO victory.
This will be an amazing stand-up striking brawl of epic proportions. Both Silva and Leben love to stand and bang. They will meet in the center of the Octagon and see who has the stronger chin. While Silva probably has a speed advantage, I give Leben the edge in strength. You cannot select referees for fights but I personally hope that Josh Rosenthal will be the ref assigned to this fight due to him having a history of letting fights go until a fighter is clearly knocked out. Picking a winner in this fight is really a coin flip of who catches who with the better shot, but you can bet cash that this fight will produce the knockout of the night.
Prediction: Chris Leben defeats Wanderlei Silva via knockout
5. Dominick "The Dominator" Cruz (17-1) defends the UFC Bantamweight Championship vs. "The California Kid" Urijah Faber (25-4)
Urijah Faber was the face of the WEC and arguably has the most mainstream name value of fighters who made a name for themselves outside of the UFC. Faber is a former WEC Featherweight Champion, holding the belt for over two years. Following losing the belt to Mike Brown and not being able to win the rematch or a shot at the belt against Jose Aldo, Faber made the decision to drop to Bantamweight, his natural wrestling weight.
He won his 135 pound debut at WEC 52 with a rear-naked choke victory over Takeya Mizugaki and was awarded the submission of the night award. He then went on to defeat Eddie Wineland via unanimous decision at UFC 128 in March. He had wanted to move down to his natural weight for some time but was unable to due to being champion and receiving championship fights at 145 pounds. However, when given the opportunity, he dropped the weight and has looked good since.
UFC Bantamweight Champion Dominick Cruz has seventeen wins in his career and only one blemish on his record. That blemish was a first round loss via one-arm guillotine choke to Urijah Faber for the WEC Featherweight Championship in 2007. Since that loss, he dropped to Bantamweight and went back to doing nothing but winning. He defeated Brian Bowles for the WEC Bantamweight Championship at WEC 47 via doctor stoppage because Bowles did not appear to mentally be there prior to the third round. Since winning the championship, Cruz has successfully defended it against Urijah Faber's teammate Joseph Benevidez at WEC 50 and against Scott Jorgensen at WEC 53.
This is one of the biggest rivalries in mixed martial arts. There were rumors circulating that these two would be opposing coaches on The Ultimate Fighter 14 following Faber's win over Wineland at UFC 128. Those rumors were shot down almost immediately as this fight was made to headline this card shortly after Faber's win. This will be the first ever Bantamweight fight to headline a UFC show, let alone pay-per-view and it will without a doubt provide fireworks on this Fourth of July weekend.
As for the fight itself, these two fighters are not the same two fighters who fought four years ago. Cruz has become much more well-rounded in the eight fights and wins he has had since Faber. Faber still has the edge in submission prowess and more knockout power while remaining as elusive as he has always been to strikes, if not more due to dropping ten pounds. While Leben vs. Silva will produce the knockout of the night, I expect that this will undoubtedly be the fight of the night. If the fight ends by stoppage due to knockout or submission, it will be by Faber. If this fight goes the distance and ends in decision, it will be Cruz out-working Faber in the stand-up for three or more of the rounds.
Prediction: Urijah Faber defeats Dominick Cruz via submission to win the UFC Bantamweight Championship
Thanks you very much for clicking the link that brought you to my preview and predictions for UFC 132: Cruz vs. Faber. If you have any thoughts, questions, comments, or critiques, feel free to email me at kliq4life28@gmail.com or tweet me at @MarkGessner. I'll be back tonight with my coverage of UFC 132: Faber vs. Cruz.
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