By Mark Gessner

UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch will be airing at 9:00 p.m. CT tonight on pay-per-view from the Acer Arena in Sydney, Australia. The following is my preview and predictions of the fights on the main card fights.

Chris Camozzi (14-3) vs Kyle Noke (18-4-1)[Middleweight Division]

Chris Camozzi is a twenty-four year old fighter who is possesses knockout power along with good submission skills. Of his fourteen career wins, 4 have come by knockout and five via submission, primarily by a variety of chokes. He got his first national exposure on the eleventh season of The Ultimate Fighter: Team Liddell vs Team Ortiz. In his fight to get into the house, he defeated Victor O'Donnell via decision. He however broke his jaw in the fight, and was removed from the show on the third episode due to the injury.

At the finale of the show, he had a fight against James Hammortree, who lost to the season eleven winner Court McGee to be eliminated from the show. Camozzi defeated Hammortree via unanimous decision. His next fight, was at UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez, where he defeated the previously undefeated South Korean wrestler, Dong Yi Yang via split decision. Comozzi is entering his fight Saturday night looking for his fifth consecutive victory. 

Kyle Noke is a thirty year old, Australian born fighter who also got his first national exposure on season eleven of The Ultimate Fighter, where he was Chuck Liddell's first pick. After defeating Clayton McKinney with a triangle choke in the first round of their fight, he lost to teammate and show finalist Kris McCray via unanimous decision.

Noke was given a fight against at the shows finale against teammate Josh Bryant. Noke beat Bryant via TKO in the second round of their fight. Noke then defeated submission specialist Rob Kimmons at UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami with a rear naked choke in the second round. Like his opponent Chris Camozzi, Kyle Noke is also entering Saturday nights fight looking for his fifth consecutive victory. 

This should be a very entertaining show opener between two TUF season eleven alumni. I think that with Kyle Noke having not only more experience having fought in nine more fights than Camozzi, along with the energy Noke will have from fighting in-front of his hometown fans, I give Noke the slight edge. 

Prediction: Kyle Noke defeats Chris Camozzi via split decision

Chris Lytle (30-17-5) vs Brian Ebersole (46-14-1-1) [Welterweight Division]

Chris "Lights Out" Lytle is a UFC veteran, who made his debut on the fourth season of The Ultimate Fighter in 2006, where he lost to Matt Serra in the Finale. Throughout his UFC career, he has been awarded seven fight bonuses, four fight of the nights, two submission of the nights, and one knockout of the night.

Only UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva has received more fight bonuses. Prior to his MMA career, Lytle was a boxer who went 13-1-1 before making the transition around the turn of the century. In his UFC career, the only people to beat him have been huge names in UFC such as Matt Hughes, Matt Serra, Thiago Alves, and Josh Koscheck. Lytle will be entering Saturday night riding a four fight win streak. 

Brian Ebersole is a MMA veteran who has fought thirteen of his last fifteen fights in Australia. Over seventy percent of his fights have ended by either knockout or submission. 

While Ebersole has the edge in the number of fights in his MMA career, Lytle has the edge in the number of quality opponents that he has fought. While I feel that the being the favorite for the Australian crowd will help Noke defeat Camozzi, I do not think that them being behind Ebersole will help him get past Lytle who has been fighting the best of the best for the past half a decade.

Chris Lytle defeats Brian Ebersole via submission

George Sotiropoulos (14-2) vs Dennis Siver (17-7) [Lightweight Division]

After opening his career with a 6-2 record in Australia and Japan, Australian George Sotiropoulos made his UFC debut in the sixth season of The Ultimate Fighter. After getting defeated by Tommy Speer in the semi-finals by knockout, he has gone on to win six consecutive fights in the UFC.

Of his six UFC wins, only two of his six fights have gone to decision, and has ended four of the six via submission. In his last fight at UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida against Joe Lauzon, he entered as the underdog, was beaten in the first round, but was able to dominate and lock in a kimura in the second round, and win the fight. A win in-front of his home country will launch him into the top five in the lightweight division.

Dennis Siver is entering his fight on Saturday night winning six of his last seven fights. Siver is a German kickboxing champion who has made a name for himself in his UFC career with his vicious, fight-ending spinning back kick to the midsection. Of his seventeen career wins, only three have come by decision. His last fight was at UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami, where he defeated Andre Winner with a rear naked choke in the first round. In the Countdown to UFC 127 show, Joe Rogan promoted Siver as the, "best kick boxer in the lightweight division."

Siver can drain the gas from any fighter he goes up against with his phenomenal spinning back kick. When he connects, fighters generally drop, lifeless. With that said, Sotiropoulos is one of the most well-rounded fighters in the lightweight division. In his last three fights, I have picked Stevenson, Pellegrino, and Lauzon against Sotiropoulos and have been wrong all three times. So while Siver has a lethal fight ending kick, I think Sotiropoulos will defeat Siver in-front of his Australian fans. 

Prediction: George Sotiropoulos defeats Dennis Siver via submission

Michael Bisping (20-3) vs Jorge Rivera (19-7) [Middleweight Division]

Michael "The Count" Bisping debuted in the UFC on the third season of The Ultimate Fighter, where he defeated Josh Haynes via TKO in the second round. He came to the UFC with an 11-0 record. Since his debut victory, he has lost to only three of his thirteen opponents, the three being MMA legends Rashad Evans, Dan Henderson, and Wanderlei Silva. He is entering this fight coming off a Fight of the Night performance in a unanimous decision victory at UFC 120, where he main evented against Yoshihiro Akiyama. Bisping is a knockout artist, winning twelve of his twenty fights by knocking his opponent unconscious. 

Jorge Rivera won in his UFC debut at UFC 44, where he beat David Loiseau via unanimous decision. He followed that win with two submission losses to Lee Murray and Rich Franklin in the UFC. He was cut, went 4-2 in his next six MMA fights, with his two losses being against Anderson Silva and Chris Leben, and was brought back to the UFC at finale of the fourth season of The Ultimate Fighter, where he beat Edwin Dewees in the first round via TKO. Following losing his daughter, Janessa, due to a blood clot due to a birth control issue that took Rivera away from the sport for nearly a year, Rivera has a 3-0 record and is looking for his fourth consecutive victory against Bisping this Saturday. 

In his last fight in Australia, Bisping was defeated by Wanderlei Silva via unanimous decision at UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez. That was Bisping's last loss, and since then he has beaten top middleweight contenders in Dan Miller and Akiyama. While he's won his last two fights by decision, Bisping cannot afford to be looking to ride out Rivera for the fifteen minutes of the fight and score yet another decision victory.

Rivera has a deadly right-hand, which Bisping has always been very suspect in defending opponent's right hands. While Rivera has given out the impression he is looking for a knockout victory by calling out Bisping leading up to the fight, I think it will be Bisping who knocks out Rivera.

Prediction: Michael Bisping defeats Jorge Rivera via knockout

B.J. Penn (16-7-1) vs Jon Fitch (23-3-0-1) [Welterweight Division]

B.J. Penn made his MMA debut in the UFC in May of 2001, when he defeated Joey Gilbert via TKO, he has gone on to beat some of the biggest names in the sport. He's submitted Matt Serra, Matt Hughes, Jens Pulver, and Kenny Florian. He's TKO'd Sean Sherk and Diego Sanchez. In his last fight, he knocked out Hughes in twenty-one seconds of the very first round. He is one of only two fighters in UFC history to hold championships in two divisions (Lightweight and Welterweight), the other being "The Natural" Randy Couture.

Since losing to Georges St. Pierre at UFC 87 in the Fight of the Night, Jon Fitch has been on an absolute tear in the welterweight division. Fitch has won his last five fights via unanimous decision and has beaten big name opponents such as Paulo Thiago and Thiago Alves in doing so. While the majority of his victories come by decision, he has won five of his fights by knockout and another five by submission showing his well-rounded fighting skills. Fitch trains at American Kickboxing Academy along with fellow top welterweight Josh Koscheck and UFC Heavyweight Champion Cain Velasquez.

The consensus pick among everyone I've talked to for this fight is Jon Fitch, but "it depends on which B.J. Penn shows up." Everyone has said, "if the B.J. Penn from the Matt Hughes fight shows up, Penn is the favorite." My immediate question is, "what B.J. Penn is that?" Since getting his ass kicked for fifty minutes in two consecutive fights by Frankie Edgar, Penn moved up back up to the welterweight division.  While his twenty-one second knockout of Matt Hughes was impressive, we did not really get a glimpse into Penn's skill and mindset in that fight. Hughes got caught, left an opening, and Penn capitalized. 

For Penn to stand a chance against Jon Fitch, the B.J. Penn from when he beat Jens Pulver up until losing to Edgar needs to show up. Aside from the loss to the pound-for-pound best fighter in the world GSP, he was impressive in tapping out Pulver, Stevenson, Sherk, and Florian, along with cutting Sanchez open to end that fight. We really do not know if that B.J. Penn is back, or if the Penn who Edgar dominated but got a lucky opening from Matt Hughes is here to stay. With that said, this is Jon Fitch's fight to lose. 

Jon Fitch defeats B.J. Penn via unanimous decision

Overall Pre-Show Thoughts: While the rest of the card does not pack a whole lot of name value, this should be a PPV with quality fights from top to bottom. It gives Australian-based fighters a chance to make a name for themselves on a big stage. Camozzi vs Noke are two evenly matched fighters in the early stages of their UFC careers.

Lytle is looking to show he still has it and continue his most recent surge by defeating Jake Ebersole. George Sotiropoulos is looking to defeat Dennis Siver in-front of his homeland and launch himself into the top five discussion in the lightweight division. And, Bisping versus Rivera will be a fight that will almost certainly end in a knockout. 

Jon Fitch is currently ranked as the number two welterweight in MMA by Sherdog and based on his last five dominant performances, I do not think it matters which B.J. Penn shows up. Following GSP expectedly defeating Jake Shields at UFC 129, vacating the title, and jumping to Middleweight, I think that leaves Fitch as one of the top three welterweights along with Koscheck and Shields.

While we will never see Fitch vs Koscheck due to them training together and their friendship, I think Fitch vs Shields and Koscheck vs Penn will be great future fights within the next year or so. Plus, once Nick Diaz is free from his Strikeforce deal, gives up on his boxing aspirations, and assuming he came pass a test for weed, you will have a handful of top, evenly-matched fighters at the 170 pound division.

Thanks again for clicking the link that brought you to my preview and predictions for UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch. If you have any thoughts, questions, comments, or critiques, feel free to email me at kliq4life28@gmail.com or tweet me at Twitter.com/MarkGessner. I'll be back this weekend with my coverage of UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch.

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